Puttin' on the Writs:
Politics for Joe 20
For: Lake Superior News
By: Hubert O'Hearn
I've said in many places that in my heart I've always been a sportswriter who has spent a career moonlighting in the arts, literature and politics. Well, it's good for a man to have hobbies.
Sports comes in handy in all those other fields. When it comes to physical duress and obsession with a goal brought to the breaking point, I'd rather watch a good football game than read 'Moby Dick' any day. And I'm not ashamed to admit it either. Evidently.
The metaphors work so nicely too for politics. Winners. Losers. Power. Struggle. Battle. Strategy. Choosing the geographic and demographic targets is not unlike deciding between 4-4-2 and 4-1-3-2 going into a Champions League draw. And what is a rally but a slightly more polite version of the ritual burning of the opposition's jersey the night before the Big College Game?
Plus the boys themselves who run for office have a substantial jockocracy majority. As much of a loner as Pierre Trudeau was, he was also a borderline extreme adventurer. John Turner of course should be bronzed as a trophy given to jockocracy Hall of Fame inductees. I think he'd rather enjoy that, which is why of course he'd be the perfect model. One also suspects that Jean Chretien was probably a 12 handicap who played to a 6 and cleaned out a few wallets in his day. But in general, our prime Ministers and near-misses have been a pretty fit crew and enjoy the pleasure of being able to snap up hockey tickets any damn night they please.
Mind you, you don't want to push your membership in the jockocracy very hard. Stockwell Day on a jet-ski anyone? That was Canada's 'Dukakis in a tank' moment to shine dimly.
One wonders if the clear public chill towards both Harper and Ignatieff is somehow based on the inability to imagine either one of them playing anything. Both of them look fit enough, Harper in an Urban Dad sort of way, but diving for a touch football pass? Naw, can't see it. I could possibly see Harper bowling, couldn't you? Then again my thoughts of Harper are coloured by comparisons with Richard Nixon and Nixon loved that White House bowling alley.
Ignatieff would be a snooker player. Anyone who spends much time in either academia or Britain ends up with chalk on their fingers, and when you put the two together to do otherwise would be akin to being from Indiana and not following basketball. But snooker isn't a sport either. Anything that you can play while smoking, drinking and telling rude stories really doesn't count as a sport.
2011 Leader's Debate ... I like Ignatieff's black cowboy hat |
Like poker. I keep coming back to poker as the metaphor for this election that apparently will be called tomorrow. Here are the hands, the hole cards as I see them:
Harper: KQ off-suit
Ignatieff: QJ suited
Layton: 10-7 off-suit
Duceppe: J-6 fold,
Gray: 7-2 off-suit, folds
Harper deals, so he has the advantage of the button – able to see and address whatever the others throw at him. Ignatieff sits in the Big Blind, Layton in the Small Blind position.
Harper narrowly has the better hand than Ignatieff, who has a very good hand but not the kind of apparent strength that will make him confident in shoving his chips. He will likely just check his turn, playing cautiously in the hopes that the flop – whatever news events that transpire in the early campaign – will favour his hand. That is the Liberal strategy I expect.
Harper and Ignatieff both hold Queens. Any Queen on the flop, say some poor economic news, seems to aid Ignatieff but actually strengthens Harper. Anything weird on unemployment figures or the TSX having a fainting spell will assist his message on strong economic stewardship. Ignatieff's best hopes are the flush, straight or Jacks.
Gilles Duceppe held one of the other Jacks however. That is Quebec. Should Ignatieff and the Liberals go over better in Quebec, say 35 seats, the government likely is theirs. But there are only two Jacks left in the deck, so that is only an 8% or so chance. He needs a series of things to go very right to form a Liberal government.
As for Jack Layton and the NDP, I've dealt him Canadian poker champion Danny Negreanu's favourite hand. You can win big pots with it, as Negreanu has in the past, but to do so requires wisdom and aggression. The hand is partially hurt by Elizabeth Gray having held a 7, but a pair of 7s wasn't going to win a whole lot anyway. I say Layton raises this hand pre-flop, comes out hot and aggressive, forcing both Harpera nd Ignatieff to call. In the case of the campaign, if Layton plays this the way I think he should and will, he will very much try to set the agenda and I suspect it will be the sleaze factor of the Tories.
Like Ignatieff's hand, Layton needs a lot of things to go right. The equivalent of hitting the other two 7s on the flop would be one more Conservative scandal along with some massive Liberal campaign flub. Both are capable of doing just that.
I may re-visit this in a week or two, after the flop as it were.
In the meantime, enjoy your politics served on a Writs cracker.
Be seeing you.