Canadian Election: The wolverine stalks the porcupine

Politics for Joe 19

For: Lake Superior News

By: Hubert O'Hearn

We will fight the government on the economy and we will win -

Michael Ignatieff, March 23 2011

The wolverine knows to strike when the porcupine shows its belly -

Ominous saying by the author, about 15 seconds ago

At the outset, we need to make a few things clear amongst ourselves. Churchill described politics as a game; the only game suitable for adults to play. But if it is a game, it is the only one where the play-by-play commentators can affect the outcome. Foster Hewitt never threw a shoe down from the Maple Leaf Gardens' broadcast gondola, beaning Rocket Richard as he crossed the blueline.

Would have been a hell of a sight, mind you.

But any chucklehead with access to a microphone, camera or keyboard theoretically can weigh in with his or her opinions and possibly change a vote or two. This of course breaks every code of ethical objectivity by which every honourable journalist is bound. And as soon as I meet one, I'll be sure to express the nation's grateful thanks.

So long as we're going to be spending these quiet and reflective/screaming from the parapet moments over the next several weeks, you may as well know exactly where I'm coming from in analyzing this election.

1. I believe that Stephen Harper is Canada's Richard Nixon, a man wrapped up in an obsessive need to not only win, not only push his platform through, but to do so by any means necessary. Those means have demonstrably included lies, secrecy, innuendo and outright personal attack. He is a vermin that demands extermination.
2. The various proved allegations against Harper and the Conservatives vis a vis contempt of Parliament do matter and should matter to the country's voters. Like it or not, but parliamentary democracy is the system we have, the system by which we have prospered as a nation, and anything that blocks the abilities of individual Members to properly perform their duties can only weaken the ability of the majority of the public to voice its desires.
3. You may as well know my call for the outcome, as we sit here on March 24^th with the writ to come at some point in the next week. I believe we will have a situation highly similar to 1985 in Ontario: a Conservative plurality replaced by a Liberal-NDP coalition; either formal or informal. The outcome will be roughly:
   1. Conservatives 110
   2. Liberals 105
   3. Bloq Quebecois 58
   4. NDP 45

4. My desire is for a formal Liberal-NDP coalition. The Liberals have no platform, no overriding theme as to where to take the country. I suspect they will slap something together over beers at the Chateau Laurier in the next week. The NDP has always been very good on themes, narratives and policies. They have thousands of graduate liberal arts students disguised as monkeys doing nothing but hammer out policy papers on suitable Macs 24 hours a day.
5. And none of the parties can screw up the economy all that badly.

The most interesting part of the Phony Campaign thus far has been the Ipsos Reid poll released Sunday. When asked what the most important issue was in the coming election here were the headline results:

Honest, Open and Trustworthy Government – 63%

Continuing Economic Recovery – 37%

Those are not happy fun time numbers for the government. Even allowing that the poll was taken while news of paid escorts receiving kickback money was turning every paper in the country into Page Three of 'The Sun' and every newscast into TMZ on the Rideau, a nearly 2/1 lead is a lot bigger than any individual news story. Even allowing for my personal prejudices, I can't imagine any commentator not seeing a government in a huge potential mess. One does recall that when Brian Mulroney tagged in Kim Campbell only for the Progressive Conservatives' caucus room to be the same size as a '57 Thunderbird, a two-seater, the economy was clunky but not horrible while there had been a cha-cha line forming of Tories involved in sundry and occasionally sultry scandals. In the old days, Tories took in strippers as entertainment while on foreign trips. Now they take escorts on as business partners. The old boys were sleazy, but smarter.

But that butchering was done by Jean Chretien, who ultimately will be seen as the Quebecois Mackenzie King. Or better yet, Chretien was like the America's Cup captain Dennis Conner who could literally see the wind and steer his ship to the front of it. Ignatieff, in contrast, is neither wind-seer nor rainmaker.

W.L. Mackenzie King - a  man who knew how to
sail political winds

Ah yes, the Rainmaker.

Keith Davey passed away a few months ago and he was the campaign strategist who did the near-impossible in 1972-74 when the Liberals were staggering along, listless and unloved. He looked at Pierre Trudeau and metaphorically saw Star Trek's Spock. Davey kept the Vulcan half as hidden as possible and brought out the human side of the imperially aloof Trudeau.

At its gut, game level that is where the election will be won. Who in these three parties has the guts and instinct to put together the narrative that will seize the country? This thing is wide-open dear friends – I can even create you a scenario where Jack Layton wakes up in 2011 the way Bob Rae did in Ontario in 1990 and realizes, “Holy s**t, I won?”

This is a pull up the chair and watch election. God knows I'm hoping to enjoy it.

Be seeing you.