Harper/Nixon and The Gut Shot Straight Election

Politics for Joe 18

By: Hubert O'Hearn

For: Lake Superior News

Harper/Nixon and The Gut Shot Straight Election ...

You can positively hear the sounds from 800 miles away: glasses clinked in delight at the National Press Gallery, Shop-Vacs and spray cans swooshing and spritzing through campaign buses made minty-fresh and clean, while somewhere in the Gatineau Hills a Prime Minister looks out at the melting snow and realizes the grey skies and sopping mess are an ugly metaphor for the Scheherazade dream story of a Majority government. He turns to the piano, sits and begins to play one of the John Lennon songs that is definitely not on the playlist for Conservative fundraisers in North Battleford. He sings:

"God is a concept

By which we measure our pain"

Alright, maybe not. But it is fun to imagine sometimes. As regular readers of this space know, my call to a gut shot straight is that the next Canadian Federal Election was not going to be fought on the economy. It simply is not a subject for much debate between or among the Conservatives, Liberals or NDP. Canadians look at the rest of the world shrieking and spinning like amateur kayakers who made the Wrong Turn, look back at ourselves and think, "Things could be worse."

The big economic guns will stay locked away. The deficit is not wildly out-of-control, inflation is moderate and employment numbers are running under a 30-year average (7.8% current, 8.53% historic).

This is why I refer to this election - coming soon to a church basement near you! - as a gut shot straight. It will be won by putting together random pieces into a larger whole that will ultimately win the pot.

Speaking of pot, that was just about the only thing missing from the Boy Howdy! list of scandals that pretty much ended Stephen Harper's government this week. The story of Bruce Carson, former aide to Harper now standing accused of illegal lobbying has a list of elements that would get a would-be novelist kicked out on the streets. Let's run through them together, shall we?

Former top policy aide to Prime Minister

22 year old escort model

20% of Aboriginal water project to be paid to said model

Model is policy aide's fiancee and business partner

Possibly meetings between former aide and Prime Minister

If it was a series, it could run for years. As it is, it stands as the perfect political scandal in that it coalesces all the unsettling suspicions Canadians have had against the Harper Conservatives; suspicions that have denied them that most-desired majority government.

I mentioned to the editor of a major Canadian news outlet just last week that Harper was starting to remind me of Nixon (Richard, not former Ontario Treasurer Bob). One starts with the obsessive secrecy and sudden firings (Helen Guergis), along with the clear contempt for independent review and legislative procedure (the Bev Oda matter). Stylistically too, every time Harper puts on the sweater or sits down at the piano - Nixon was quite a good player too - every time he tries to look relaxed and guy-ish, he comes off more and more awkward. Like Darth Vader wearing a Kiss the Cook apron.

The Harpers relax at home

The Bruce Carson ring-a-ding-ding scandal (and Carson is old enough to remember what ring-a-ding-ding stood for...he can explain it to his fiancee) puts focus on the sleaze factor. The election, will, I think not be fought totally on Truth & Openness. All parties promise that and no sentient voter ever believes them. But, here's the nut. Because the Harper government has been so rfevealed to be dishonest and manipulative in public discourse and behaviour, they lose the validity of government itself. Put simply: Who's going to believe them? If for argument's sake Finance Minister Jim Flaherty announces in Wednesday's budget that growth was going to be 4% for the coming year, unemployment to slide to 6% and growth in the energy sector would account for much of a $10 billion trimming of the deficit ... would you believe a word of it?

That's Harper's bet. He doesn't want to push his chips in, but he's gambling that he can sell strength and play with enough attitude (in this case the attack ad campaign) that he can fold his opponents. But it's now or never for him. One economic wobble and whatever argument he has left for his government is gone.

I think the Liberals and NDP will call the bet. They should. Canada does not need a Nixon. It is more than a little worrisome that the best offer the Liberals have put out to Canada is, 'We'll build you hockey rinks!' And this from a party that has supposedly been tut-tutting the government over its penchant for slathering Conservative Party signwork over every public works project in Canada.

There is a very, very good chance for the NDP here. The electorate's fear of the NDP has always been, 'Can they manage the economy?' If the economy is off the table - if the electorate is comfortable that none of the parties can bugger that up too badly - then that fear too is off the table.

We'll be following this closely. Be prepared for frequent updates. Possibly short, possibly wrong. But definitely something to watch during commercial breaks of the NCAAs.

Be seeing you.