Sabtu, 05 Februari 2011

Why 'It's Not the Economy Stupid'




Politics for Joe 17
What's the Story, Morning Glory?: Campaign 2011
By: Hubert O'Hearn
For: Lake Superior News

In the last installment, I promised to lay out for you a campaign that would work in the next election. This was originally going to be focused on the Liberals, until I realized that I was making distinctions between Liberals and NDP that aren't actually there. Now, before any Endipper has a conniption and roars that the New Democrats are not a bunch of shuffle-footed policy flip-floppers who will sacrifice principle for victory … yeah, I know that. But the Liberals are, and therefore that which works for one major Opposition party will work for both.

If you look up Politics for Joe 16, you'll see an argument that campaign politics is the art of story-telling mixed with money. If you elect me, I shall do X that will result in the Happy Ending of Y. Why? Because that is the public attention span, the rough equivalent of the time a parent will spend reading a bedtime story to a grumpy child.

Now, do not misinterpret the above as the prelude to the 1,957th writing of the standard moan – and it's a wonder no one ever named a newspaper the Standard Moan – damning or chastising the public for essentially not giving a sh!t about the issues. You'll read lots of those this year. To a columnist, they are the equivalent of a quarterback sneak on fourth and inches. The play usually works and it doesn't require much creative risk.

Besides which, the public doesn't have time to care – or even if they care they lack the time to be informed. We always look back to Athens in the era of Pericles as the ideal. Where everything was voted on by the public, but really what did 'everything' entail? Are we at war with Sparta this week? The odd execution or banishment, some talk of customs duties and who are we hiring to be the house band at the Olympics? That was about it. Global climate change and its effects on economy, agriculture and society is a bit more complex.

There is also the ugly nut truth of Canadian politics – in terms of an economic policy designed towards steady growth while discouraging the sorts of wild speculation that can wither and burn a nation's treasury – it really doesn't matter what we think. As a trading nation, we are beneficiary or victim of our partners. The Canadian banking industry may well be the only sane and stable one in the G8 – but the great financial implosion of 2008 did this country no favours either. Canada's choice is either to become an insular and self-supporting state – did I mention we are a trading nation? - or be satisfied with attempting to convince, cajole and convert the rest of the major nations. And good luck with that.
ehhhhh..I got nuthin'

Harper and the Conservatives have essentially done nothing with the economy – if the Liberals or the NDP had been in power, they would have run the exact same awkwardly administered stimulus package so don 't hand me that guff – other than the relative minutiae of corporate tax cuts and the like – which nobody gives a sh!t about. Joe, when you hear about 'corporate tax cuts', or see billboards in their favour which boggled my eyes when I saw two of them, I think that your likely reaction is, 'Um, I'll care about that when I have a corporation, which is likely never. So long as my bill doesn't go up, I don't care.' But because of all that, I suspect that the next Federal election has the rare opportunity to be about something other than It's The Economy Stupid.

Honestly now, while the distribution of tax revenue collection is of obvious importance, as are many other aspects of economic policy, absent either a present crisis or a really sharp difference of opinion dividing Conservatives and Opposition (which there isn't) the economy will fade as an election issue.

I suspect that this is why the Tories are running their 'good steward' commercials featuring Harper simultaneous with the rabid voiding of the bowels that are the ads slagging Michael Ignatieff. The Harper government dearly wants this election fought on the economy and will continue to attempt to make that the main issue. If I were in their War Room, I would too. If the Liberals and/or fall into the trap, they are righteously doomed.

But Joe, you may be wondering how the Opposition can take the focus off the economy, and if they do, with what will they replace it? Regarding the first, the Liberals somewhat stumbled onto the response when in 2008 when the financial world had its (first) implosion. When Harper started to strut about Canadian banks not imploding, Team Ignatieff replied, 'ya well...it was our regulations what saved 'em!' Do a Rope-a-Dope. Take credit and move on.

By the way, I have no idea what the NDP said in 2008. Nobody pays attention to the NDP on the economy, much the same as at some point in life you read Winnie the Pooh for the last time.

But – he says sensing enraged endippers firing up their OpenOffice Writer – this represents a golden opportunity for Jack Layton's Correct Politics and Chowder Society. For if the economy is shunted to the side in the Great Election Debate, what does that leave?

War. Social justice. The environment. I truly wish that then environment could be first on the list, but Stephane Dion tried that and Joe – on this one I have to call you on it – you didn't care.

I suspect that any Party that says on Afghanistan, 'We did our best. We're done. We're home.', will find a lot of support. Yes we can supply teachers and agronomists after the war is over, but after the war is over.

On social justice, the issues of health care, civil rights, native land claims and rights to privacy all can be emergent. And these are right in the NDP's wheelhouse. But what will be crucial is how these issues are put together into a narrative, which I will lay out for you...

...next time. Be seeing you.

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