The Liberal Democrat Party in the UK - born as the Liberals, had a brief marriage with the SDP and now exists as stated above - has for ninety years more or less been the equivalent in its supporters to those strange people in the Southern U.S. who waved Confederate Flags and proclaimed, 'The South Will Rise Again!' This, usually followed by a gust of Yee-Haws. Not the Liberal Democrats are a bastion of scarcely closeted racists and Coca-Cola addicts. I'm sure there must be one or two in the ranks, but that's the universal franchise for you. No, the similarity is that supporting the Liberals in the hopes of forming a government is like waiting for the Confederate States to splinter off. Not gonna happen. Oprah Winfrey will have hot sex with Hilary Clinton in a steel cage under the hot lights of the New Orleans Superdome while a trained marmoset named Mickey drops hot oil on them before the Liberals were going to form a government again.
Oprah's on line two.
You are to strike all memory or resemblance of the preceding metaphor from your mind and if by any chance it ever re-emerges you must clasp your hands in front of you and recite the following oath: "Everything I have ever read about Oprah is fictional except for the stuff in O magazine and anything else Harpo Productions shills." Or else...
Hilary's on line one.
Or else pictures and a full profile of your sister will be given to Bill and we're arranging a speaking engagement for him in your city's hometown and we don't care if it's Dogpatch, the former President of the United States is going to be knocking on her door with a bottle of Jack, two cigars and the gleam of a traveling salesman in his eye.
So scratch the metaphor.
But all of a sudden, for the first time ever there was actually a British leaders' debate. And the Liberal leader - Nick Clegg, seems like a nice fellow - absolutely drubbed Labour leader Gordon Brown and Conservative David Cameron. One poll I saw revealed that 61% of committed Conservative voters thought Clegg won the debate. In all my years working in or writing about politics I have never ever seen a number like that. The hardcore supporters of the party that is winning the election in the polls likes the other guy better. By two to one.
If you're interested in the whos and hows and whats check The Guardian for excellent coverage. My curiousity is with an idle observation. Polling varies incredibly in the UK depending on the slant an individual polling or news organizations wish to portray. I actually like this. Completely corrupt polling means that the public trusts none of it and so stays engaged with what the parties are actually saying. How refreshing. Caveats aside, the Liberal Democrats have received a 3-4% bounce from the debate and are closing in or have closed on Labour for second place ... unless its the Conservatives for second place. At any rate, they're actually in the game.
But here's the idle ... and sleekly creepy observation. Isn't it interesting that the first time a debate is held, the most centrist party won. One would need more jurisdictions and ideally nations to examine how their voting patterns changed in reaction to television debates, but the data would lead to a chicken or egg type question. Is it centrist positions that make for attractive television viewing - no one gets too upset; or is it that the Mcluhanesque 'cool medium' of television creates a medium for centrist positions.
Consider: the last U.S. Presidential election before nationwide televised debates. Serious contenders for the Presidency included the very left Henry Wallace, the very right Strom Thurmond and the eventual winner Harry S Truman. On a national level, the left has never been as left, the right still lurks like a dread horizon, but things do shuffle together into a center right consensus. And center right includes Clinton, may include Obama but does not include Richard Nixon. Discuss.
And let's leave it there for now. But if you have any thoughts, please do post a comment. And click an ad. Baby needs new shoes. Be seeing you!
UPDATE (12:20AM April 17 2010): The following from The Guardian website linked above -
Flanked by the Take That star Gary Barlow, Cameron announced that a Tory government would introduce a national music talent competition called School Stars, which would involve local and regional heats, and would culminate in a national final in June 2011. Winners would get the chance to record a song with Barlow.
So the Conservative Leader's solution to Britain's youth problems is to stage a frigging game show!?!?! Teen Idol! The answer to our prayers of poverty! It worked in that movie about the kids in India! People love that s**t!
I no longer question the Liberal surge. The Conservatives will shudder back to roughly their 30% core, the Liberals will grab most of it to 27% with Labour forming a poor to middling minority at 35%. The numbers don't add to a hundred because of regional parties. Interesting times. It could be Ontario 1985 come to Britain 2010. One party granted the government because of a razor-thin plurality of seats (and it would have to be razor-thin) only to have the other two parties form a coalition to defeat them and form the government after a motion of Non-Confidence. If so, the Liberals are set up just as Peterson's Liberals were in 1985. The centre party can always blame anything that goes wrong on those wacky guys sitting next to us while pulling the agenda towards their own. Well worth watching for the political news junkie.
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